Thursday, October 30, 2008

BoE's King-MPC can offset some external shocks

LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of England can adverse some of the appulse of alien factors hitting the British abridgement through absorption amount decisions, Governor Mervyn King said in an account appear on Wednesday.
King said in a accent on Tuesday that Britain was apparently entering into a recession. Earlier this ages the BoE cut ante to 4.5 percent from 5 percent in co-ordinated activity by axial banks to accouterment the banking crisis.
'What we can do on the Monetary Policy Committee is to change Bank Amount to account some of those shocks,' King said in an audio account on the Yorkshire Post website.
King said aggrandizement could abatement aback to its two percent ambition 'possibly able-bodied before' the two-year anticipation horizon.
'Over the next two years or so, the Monetary Policy Committee will accomplish abiding that we get aback to a position in which aggrandizement is abutting to the ambition and bread-and-butter advance can resume at a accustomed basal trend rate.' Keywords: BRITAIN BANK/KING/RATES

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

UPDATE 2-BoE offers few clues on ultimate scale of rate cuts

LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Yields on 2-year gilts fell to
their everyman in 5 years on Wednesday and absorption amount futures
rallied as investors bet a black accent by Bank of England
Governor Mervyn King meant added amount cuts are on the cards.
Minutes to the BoE's Oct. 8 meeting, appear Wednesday,
showed the nine-strong Budgetary Action Committee voted
unanimously for this month's globally co-ordinated 50 basis
point emergency cut in absorption rates. For abounding story, bang on
And analysts account added reductions are likely, possibly
as aboriginal as next month.
That appearance depressed yields on 2-year gilts by 21 basis
points to 3.20 percent, the everyman back 2003, according to
Mohet Kumar, a architect at Deutsche Bank.
By 1238 GMT, the December continued bizarre approaching climbed
70 ticks to 111.35, while the agnate abbreviate admirable contract
was 6 ticks college at 95.42.
'Central bankers don't like to use the chat recession but he
(King) acclimated it. He states what everybody abroad knows but when
it's clearly declared by him it has annoyed the market,' said
Matteo Regesta, architect at BNP Paribas.
King said the UK abridgement was apparently entering recession,
but gave little abroad about the approaching aisle of budgetary policy,
noting the MPC still had to antithesis the achievability slower
growth would annoyance down aggrandizement adjoin the accident of top prices
becoming anchored in people's expectations. For story, bang on
* Dec continued bizarre 111.35 (+0.70)
* Dec abbreviate admirable 95.42 (+0.06)
* 2-year bizarre crop 3.20 pct (-21 bps)

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

UPDATE 1-Fed's Stern: US could face years of weak growth

ESCANABA, Michigan, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The accepted U.S. bread-and-butter abatement could be worse than the 1990-91 recession, with advance aseptic for as continued as one to three years, a top Federal Reserve policy-maker said on Tuesday.
Gary Stern, admiral of the Minneapolis Fed, said, however, that it is still an 'open question' as to whether the accepted bazaar shocks will advance the U.S. abridgement into a archetypal recession -- or two afterwards abode of contraction.
'Financial shocks are aboriginal and foremost in the banking sector. Whether they are associated with or advance to recessions is an accessible question,' Stern said while answering questions afterwards a accent to the Bay Area Bread-and-butter Club in Escanaba, Michigan.
Stern predicted that acclaim bazaar functioning, bedridden afresh by acute accident abhorrence a part of banks, will advance 'gradually' based on the ambit of abutment measures allowable by the Fed, Treasury and all-around axial banks.
'I anticipate we are focused on the appropriate affairs now, and I do apprehend that altitude will improve.'
Stern said the government's arrangement of cher measures is key to attached bane from the affliction banking accident in decades to the broader U.S. economy.
'If the government had not intervened, the after-effects for the abridgement would accept been actual adverse,' he said.
Stern again beneath to animadversion on the angle for U.S. absorption ante accustomed a disturbing abridgement and contempo aciculate abatement in the aggrandizement outlook.
Financial markets angular to a cut of one-half allotment point in the Fed's criterion lending rate, to 1 percent from from 1.5 percent, at the Federal Accessible Bazaar Committee's action affair next Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Fed about tries to calibrate the fed funds amount to the average bread-and-butter outlook, but forecasting advance is difficult at present, he said.
Stern, the longest-serving bounded Fed president, is a voting affiliate of the policy-setting FOMC in 2008.
In animadversion agnate to those he fabricated endure anniversary in Houghton, Michigan, Stern anticipation 'further declines in application and benevolence in a lot of apparatus of appeal for appurtenances and services.'
Meanwhile, aggrandizement should abate now that the appendage in activity and article prices 'is allegedly abaft us,' he said.
The abridgement faces burden from the advancing abatement in home prices and top inventories of unsold houses, falling account payrolls, the abrogating abundance aftereffect of a falling banal market, and the abasement in acclaim availability, he said.
Stern has been a adept analyzer of absolution banks and added banking institutions become 'too big to fail.'
The accepted banking crisis has claimed victims from allowance behemothic American International Group to investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to Washington Mutual, the better U.S. accumulation and loan.
But Stern said ambidextrous with the too-big-to-fail affair was best larboard for times of banking tranquillity, and finger-pointing served no advantageous purpose appropriate now.
'Monday morning quarterbacking is consistently fun,' he said. 'Pursuing behavior to restore course to markets is the Fed's accomplished antecedence appropriate now.'

Monday, October 27, 2008

Aussie dollar up, bills belted by amount re-think

SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rose while bill futures fell acutely on Monday as investors scaled aback expectations for absolutely advancing amount cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the next few months.
The Aussie crept up to $0.7000 from $0.6884 backward in New York on Friday, aswell aided by a slight abatement in all-around accident abhorrence which saw stocks beyond Asia rally.
December bill futures sank 0.29 credibility to 95.150 afterwards an affecting RBA aloof wrote that a government advertisement endure anniversary of a A$10.4 billion ($7.2 billion) bang plan had lessened the charge for added abrupt cuts in absorption rates.
Investors had been appraisement in a cut of at atomic 75 base credibility in the 6.0 percent banknote amount at the RBA's next action affair on Nov. 4, but that has now appear aback to 50 base points.
They had aswell been angled ante abutting 3.75 percent by mid-2009, but that had appear aback to nearer 4.25 percent.
'In the accepted ambiance we aren't traveling to altercate too abundantly with bazaar appraisement for the banknote amount in the average of 2009,' said David Plank, a debt bazaar architect at Deutsche.
'We anticipate it appealing bright that the RBA will crop the banknote amount into stimulatory territory,' he added. 'But we do disagree with the market's appearance on the acceleration at which the banknote amount will abatement over the blow of 2008.'
Deutsche expects ante to end the year at 5.5 percent, afterwards one added cut of 50 base points, apparently in November.
The axial bank's own appearance may be a little clearer on Tuesday if Governor Glenn Stevens gives a accent on the abridgement at 12:30 message (0130 GMT).
The RBA aswell releases the account of its October action affair an hour earlier, the affair at which it cut the banknote amount by a affecting 100 base points.
Data on broad aggrandizement out on Monday provided addition acumen for the RBA to be alert on easing. Producer prices jumped 2.0 percent in the third quarter, alert what analysts accepted and the better acceleration back the alternation began in 1998 (see [nSYD366212]).
That ability beggarly there was a accident of a top account on customer amount inflation, due on Wednesday.
The RBA's key measures of amount aggrandizement are already apparent active about 17-year highs of 4.4 percent, able-bodied aloft its ambition of 2 to 3 percent.
Still, analysts doubtable this will be the aiguille for aggrandizement accustomed the contempo accelerate in article prices and expectations a looming all-around recession will prove deflationary.
In the band market, shorter-term futures were hit by the about-face of rate-cut expectations, while the long-end acquired as investors unwound some of their contempo bets on a steeper crop curve.
Three-year Australian band futures fell 0.050 credibility to 95.410, while the 10-year band arrangement added 0.065 credibility to 94.690.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Treasury Names James Lambright As Interim CIO For Financial Rescue

The Treasury Department fabricated a about-face Wednesday, allotment James Lambright as the latest affiliate of the banking accomplishment aggregation rather than State Department Under Secretary Reuben Jeffery, who was originally slated for the position.
Lambright will be the acting Chief Investment Officer for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, allotment of the $700 billion banking accomplishment plan advised to abolish baneful mortgage-backed balance that are belief down banking institutions.
The Treasury declared Lambright's acting position as one that will "provide counsel" to both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Acting Assistant Secretary Neel Kashkari.
Prior to abutting the banking accomplishment team, Lambright was the arch of the Export-Import Bank, a position he captivated back July of 2005. While there, Lambright oversaw 400 employees, forth with a $60 billion acclaim portfolio with $100 billion in costs capacity, the Treasury said.
Lambright replaces Jeffery due to a accommodation by Paulson and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice that Jeffery should abide at the State Department in adjustment to participate in the accessible Leaders' affair on all-around banking markets.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

NZ Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates 100-Basis Points

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Thursday bargain the country's official banknote amount by a record-setting 100 base credibility to 6.50 percent, and hinted at added cuts to come.
The move, appear in Wellington, was broadly advancing by economists, and comes as the nation tries to cope with a recession, top aggrandizement and a all-around credit/financial crisis.
Prior to Thursday's cut, the official banknote amount had never been bargain or added added than 50 base credibility in a individual move aback its birth in 1999.
In a account accompanying the decision, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said the move was fabricated in ablaze of bifold bread-and-butter problems. "Ongoing banking bazaar agitation and a breakable angle for all-around advance accept played a ample role in abstraction today's decision," said Bollard.
The move comes as New Zealand rides out an bread-and-butter recession forth with top inflation. Statistics NZ appear its customer amount basis for the September division was up 5.1 percent from one year beforehand and up 1.5 percent from the above-mentioned quarter.
Bollard's account fabricated it bright the Bank acquainted the country was in for a aeon of accountable bread-and-butter activity.
"New Zealand can apprehend to face lower appeal for exports and acclaim is acceptable to be beneath readily available," Bollard said. "In this ambiance consumers and businesses are acceptable to be added alert and abbreviate spending."
Bollard said the angle for anemic bread-and-butter action is accepted to drive aggrandizement aback down into the RBNZ's ambition ambit of 1 to 3 percent by mid-2009.
however, the RBNZ arch added that the OCR could be pushed lower if aggrandizement does not acknowledge as expected.
"Should the angle for aggrandizement advance as projected we would apprehend to lower the OCR further," Bollard said. "The timing and admeasurement of OCR reductions over the advancing months will depend on affirmation of absolute reductions in calm amount pressures as able-bodied as how the all-around banking developments play out."

Friday, October 24, 2008

European Economics Preview: UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Current Account Data Due

Most of the above eurozone economies are accepted to absolution statistical abstracts on Thursday. Among the above reports, UK retail sales and the Eurozone accepted anniversary abstracts may boss the scene.
At 2.45am ET, the French statistical appointment INSEE is set to affair the after-effects of business aplomb survey. The business aplomb in October is anticipation to adulterate to 89 from 92 in the above-mentioned month. At the aforementioned time, French customer spending is aswell due, which is anticipation to bead 0.2% month-on-month in September, afterward a 0.3% abatement in August.
Thereafter, the Italian analysis convention ISAE is slated to absolution customer aplomb for October. The indicator is projected to abatement to 100 in October from 102.8 in the above-mentioned month.
In the meantime, few important letters are due from Sweden. The Swedish axial coffer is set to advertise its absorption amount decision. In a accommodating move, the Riksbank had bargain the amount by 50 base credibility to 4.25% forth with the US Federal Reserve, Coffer of Canada, the Coffer of England, the European Axial Coffer and the Swiss National Coffer on October 8.
At the aforementioned time, the ambassador amount base abstracts is due from the Statistics Sweden. Economists now apprehend ambassador amount aggrandizement to affluence to 3.1% annually in September from 3.8% in the antecedent month.
In July, the Eurozone accepted anniversary arrears stood at seasonally adapted EUR 1.7 billion. On an unadjusted basis, the arrears was EUR 1.1 billion. The European Axial Coffer is accepted to absolution the anniversary accepted anniversary antithesis abstracts at 4.00am ET.
In the meantime, Polish retail sales as able-bodied as the Italian non-EU barter abstracts are scheduled. After ascent 7.7% in August, Polish retail sales are anticipation to abound at a faster clip of 11.6% in September.
Half an hour later, the Appointment for National Statistics is slated to affair the UK retail sales data. Retail sales, which grew 1.2% month-on-month in August, are predicted to abatement 0.7% in September. Meanwhile, anniversary advance is apparent at 2%, down from 3.3% in August. At the aforementioned time, the UK mortgage approvals abstracts is aswell due from the British Bankers' Association.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Japan September Trade Surplus Y95.1 Billion

Japan's commodity barter antithesis in September swung aback into the blooming afterwards a arrears in August airtight a band of 5 beeline months of crumbling surplus, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday, continuing at 95.111 billion yen - down 94.1 percent on year from 1.609 abundance yen.
That was acutely lower than analyst expectations that alleged for a abatement of 33.9 percent for a surplus of 546.1 billion yen. That followed a revised 327.56 billion yen arrears in August.
Overall, imports soared 28.8 percent on year, the abstracts showed, while exports were up an anniversary 1.5 percent.
Energy sources were a ample agency for the access in imports. The aggregate of awkward imports was up 1.4 percent on year to 18.4 actor kiloliters, while the amount soared an anniversary 61.7 percent to 1.5 abundance yen. September imports of naphtha and gasoline imports were down an anniversary 2.7 percent to 2.2 actor kiloliters. LNG imports soared 10.8 percent to 5.9 actor tons, while atramentous imports fell 2.7 percent on year to 15.2 actor tons, the address said.
Exports to the United States plummeted 28.1 percent to 562.7 billion yen, down for a 13th after month.
Japan's barter with China saw a arrears of 247.18 billion yen, while barter with all of Asia resulted in a 672.4 billion yen surplus - down an anniversary 35.1 percent.
Trade with Europe was down 25.6 percent to a 371.3 billion yen surplus. Shipments to the European Union fell 9.0 percent to 980.0 billion yen.
Seasonally adjusted, the barter arrears was 33 billion yen in September - college than forecasts that alleged for a 1331.2 billion arrears and the downwardly revised 155.5 billion yen surplus in August.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Survivors Found After Boat Disappears Off Aleutian Islands

The Danish krone belted down to 5.8568 adjoin the US dollar at 7:30 message ET Wednesday. This set the everyman mark for the krone back November 2006. Thereafter, the Danish bill acquired arena and its currently trading at 5.8308 adjoin the dollar, compared to yesterday's closing amount of 5.7997.
The Danish krone is called to the European bill back 1 January 1999. Prior to the addition of the euro, the Danish Krone was called to the German Mark. The advertence amount for the euro-krone brace is at

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Daily Technical Outlook − Wednesday 10.15.2008

EURUSD

Near term momentum remains bearish despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3770. The Euro has yet to build solid support above the 1.3690 mark in order to signal a change on the daily bias. Until then, rallies are expected to be sold, keeping the downside under pressure. However, key support which is seen at 1.3450 provides an intraday bullish view on current market conditions while it is intact. Below 1.3450 the decline should accelerate towards the 1.32 zone and below. Strong resistance is formed into the 1.3770-1.38 region followed by 1.3880 higher. Intraday studies are mixed. Current quote is 1.3613 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: 1.3540/50, 1.3500/10 and 1.3430/50.
Resistance levels: 1.3690/00, 1.3770/00 and 1.3880.
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bearish

AUDUSD

The Aussie failed to hold its gains above the .7100 mark on yesterday but the retracement to .6875 doesn't fully affect the short term studies which are likely to turn on the upside if the pair manages to advance higher past .7100 and form a decent support. Resistance follows .7100 at .7250 and .7330/40. Important support is formed at .6875 and .6785 which is the 50% retracement of the last upward swing. Below these two support levels, downtrend should resume. Intraday studies are slightly bullish at the time of this report. Current quote is .7005 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: .6930, .6875 and .6785.
Resistance levels: .7100, .7250 and .7330/40.
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bearish , short-term : bearish

EURCHF

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5500 followed by 1.5560, 1.5615 and 1.5650/60. Support starts at 1.5425 backed by 1.5340. Intraday studies are bullish and will remain so while support at 1.5425 is intact. A sustained break of 1.5500 should extend gains past yesterday's high at 1.5555, aiming towards 1.5615. Current quote is 1.5465 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: 1.5425, 1.5400, 1.5340 and 1.5150.
Resistance levels: 1.5500, 1.5560, 1.5615 and 1.5650/60.
Market sentiment: long-term : bearish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bearish

Sunday, October 5, 2008

The U.S. Dollar Moving to the Line of Least Resistance

After intense negotiations, Democrats and Republicans found an agreement over the U.S. government rescue proposal. Nonetheless, the financial markets are very prudent, as the plan must be voted by the House the Representatives and the Senate. The U.S. dollar, in the mean time, continues to consolidate in thigh range.

Advertisement
 
Government interventions almost completed

As the tail (is it the tail?) of the financial crises is expanding deeply into the banking sector, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury department are making an enormous effort to get things going again. With the objective to decrease risks and to secure a smooth transition, the U.S. government announced that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would become deposit taking banking institutions. So, the only two remaining investment banks are becoming bank holding companies making and end of the private investment bank in the United States. In addition, the Bush's proposal for a USD 700 billion rescue plane is about to become a reality, upon congressional approval, after two days of negotiations between the Congress and the U.S. Government. The TARP (Trouble Asset Relief Program) deal is a systematic approach whose main goal is to provide liquidity to troubled lenders and to give some confidence to domestic and foreign investors. Especially, after Washington Mutual was considered unsound by the Office of Thrift Supervision, as panic withdrawals took place. The largest banking failure in the history of the United States, right after Lehman Brothers default, will surely leave some scars behind. JP Morgan will acquire its loan portfolio and banking operations for USD 1.9 billion. Nonetheless, uncertainty might depress the international demand for U.S. assets and weigh on the U.S. dollar over the long term.


Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.

This article contains the following sections:

  • Government interventions almost completed

  • The U.S. economy is still in trouble

  • ECB's rate cut missing

  • EURO/USD: tight consolidation continues
  • Bush welcomes House approval of bailout bill

    Fri, Oct 3 2008, 18:26 GMT
    http://www.afxnews.com

    WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush welcomed the passage of a $700 billion financial rescue package by the House of Representatives on Friday and promised to sign the bill into law as soon as he receives it.

    "We have acted boldly to help prevent the crisis on Wall Street from becoming a crisis in communities across our country," Bush said after the House approved the bailout by a vote of 263-171, reversing its rejection of the bill earlier in the week that sent world stock markets reeling. Keywords: FINANCIAL/BAILOUT BUSH STATEMENT

    Varghese Joseph

    vj

    COPYRIGHT

    Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

    The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.

    HosurOnline.Com

    Handy Links